Sunday, November 22, 2009

Kur "BAN"

It was a deja vu scene of the numerous movies starring Prabhuji, Dharmendra, even Amitabh in (Ganga Jamuna Saraswati) which i had seen a decade earlier . Hero hit by bullet and heroine helping him pluck out the bullet from his body with such elan which can put the tea picker from Assam to shame. Overall you ll get a feeling that the director had given up by the last frame. Brilliant Build up unsupported by a lack lustre climax. My sixth sense says that somehow the prior release of "New York" played the spoil sport in the weakened climax. There seems to be a forceful effort to make changes in the characterization of the key actors and plot to make them different from New York which added to more confusion.
First about the plot: Mix of Fanaa and New York. A undercover terrorist having a massive detruction plan using the leading lady as a shield to get his work done. And more confusion. The climax scene was a utter mayhem.
About the actors: All are good. Just wished they were supported by good screenplay.
Music: Background score had traces of "Pirates of carribean" theme and songs were good and well picturised.


Effect of Feedbacks on the global Financial systems

This is the work currently pursued by one of my Professor Prof. Indranil Chatterjee ( AKA IC).

The following is a transcript of a lecture given by George Soros at Central European University on October 27, 2009.

Negative feedback occurs when the output of a system acts to oppose changes to the input of the system; with the result that the changes are attenuated. If the overall feedback of the system is negative, then the system will tend to be stable.Examples are : Geasers, Appraisals

Positive feedback seeks to increase the event that caused it, such as in a nuclear chain-reaction. It is also known as a self-reinforcing loop. Positive feedback loops are more interesting because they can cause big moves, both in market prices and in the underlying fundamentals. But positive feedback processes do not necessarily run their full course; they may be aborted at any time by negative feedback.

Using this logic we can understand the pattern for each Boom Bust behaviour in our markets.The current boom bust process is not over yet and there might be more skeltons left in the cupboard .Also it is very complex as we have mortage, green, and much more complicated instruments involved in it. We will try to analyse the another comprehensive bubble of 1987 in the global markets using the feedback system.

I have developed a theory about bubble-bust processes, or bubbles, along these lines.
  • Every bubble has two components: An underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. A boom-bust process is set in motion when a trend and a misconception positively reinforce each other. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way. If the trend is strong enough to survive the test, both the trend and the misconception will be further reinforced. Eventually, market expectations become so far removed from reality that people are forced to recognize that a misconception is involved.
  • A twilight period ensues during which doubts grow, and more people loose faith, but the prevailing trend is sustained by inertia. As Chuck Prince, former head of Citigroup said: we must continue dancing until the music stops. Eventually a point is reached when the trend is reversed; it then becomes self reinforcing in the opposite direction.
  • Let me go back to the example I used when I originally proposed my theory in 1987: the conglomerate boom of the late 1960s. The underlying trend is represented by earnings per share, the expectations relating to that trend by stock prices. Conglomerates improved their earnings per share by acquiring other companies. Inflated expectations allowed them to improve their earnings performance, but eventually reality could not keep up with expectations.

i realize that my theory of financial markets is still very rudimentary and needs a lot more development. Obviously I cannot do it on my own. So I may have been premature in putting forward my theory as the new paradigm. But the efficient market hypothesis has certianly prooved inadequate: has been conclusively disproved. The entire edifice of global financial markets that has been erected on the false premise that markets can be left to their own devices has to be rebuilt from the ground up.

http://www.soros.org/resources/multimedia/sorosceu_20091112/financialmarkets_transcript

Monday, November 16, 2009

Indian Media

It was a memorable day for Indian Cricket. It witnessed the surpassing of 11000 mark by a living legend. It was a hectic day at office and i was following the web news religiously throughout the day in expectation of watching the highlights which i thought would be flashing incessantly across all news channels. All the classic pulls, hook and cover drives of the hero has been replaced by the brazen ( read stupid) news discussing the criticism of Mumbai patriarch against Marathi Manoos batting genius quipping that he is "Indian" first. All the biggest "brains" in Indian Politics, Cricket in greed of TV footage also hogging to this opportunity rather than appreciating the "poetry" created on the cricket pitch in today's match. They say that Indian Viewers have very short memory. The media could have played its part in elongating this memory. It was a small expectation considering that it was the same media which carried out a week long campaign to celebrate the completion of two decade of successful cricket by one of greatest cricketing Icon. In the frenzy to out do each other this occasion, they conveniently forgot to celebrate the children's day and 120th anniversary of our first prime minister. One leading daily carried a front page full of eulogy for our cricket maestro.
Its high time that they should do away with some commerce and give importance to the sole purpose for which they exist.

Now some of the records broken by the cricket legend which should have been highlighted today are:

Highest number of 100+ partnership is now 78+
Second Indian to cross 11,000 Mark.
Steve Waugh toppled from the 5th position from all time highest run getter.

Congratulations Rahul. Looking forward for more records from you.


Sunday, November 15, 2009

2 video

One , the Israel Gymnast team dancing to a Bollywood song in the beijing Olympics.



Two, a nice song featuring Adnan Sami and Germaine Jackson about Mumbai.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Quiz on Bollywood

Please post your answers in the comment section.



Answer

Sunday, November 08, 2009

A cute love story - APKGK

Rajkumar Santoshi (RKS) always lives up to his reputation of being a class apart director. I am not sure any director who can follow up a social drama "Hala Bol" with this cute love story.

The story is a simple as told earlier in many of Katrina Movies i.e Singh is King, London Namaste etc. I believe the story of multiple suitor for Katrina is quite apt given her Cleopatra like beauty which just spell binds all the writers and prohibits them to create something new.

Taking analogy with corporate presentations, this movie stands out on 3 pillars:
No pretension of being a stupid film - The director goes out of his ways to entertain the viewers even Making Lord drive a Van with a Good Shepherd nameplate. Also, creative spoof on melodramatic dialogues, bollywood names - Jenny, Tony Braganza, Rahul ( who always is the first favorite for girls), hero named Prem. You must see to the trivial detailing that is taken care in the film making. Only a director of RKS could have done justice to it and apt he has done it.

Simple Story: After a deluge of complex stories in the recent movies it was a welcome change. Its the same story of a silent lover going all way out to impress the girl who is already in love with ubiquitous lover boy Rahul. The interval scene where the hero falls from the terrace is symbolic of his desperation of being so close to his love and still far from her. He is hurt but still smiles with a thumbs up.

Hero: Had it not been the hero who has intertwined all the missing links, the film would fallen flat on the ground. It required screen presence and acting of Ranbir Kapoor caliber to make the film what it is today. Good to see the scion of our first family of bollywood keeping up the good name.

Its a good movie and may be RKS could arrange for a better music composer for his next comedy which i am eagerly waiting for.

Saturday, November 07, 2009

Jaisalmer Trip - To be completed

Day 1:

We took the delhi - jaisalmer train intercity express.
About the train: Very Slow. It takes around 19 hrs to reach Jaisalmer.The train has around 38 stops between Delhi Interesting train- It separates out as 2 different trains from Jaipur. The 3rd AC compartment was dirty. Please be sure to carry your own bedsheets for the journey. The sleeping gear provided by the IRTDC may cause some inconvenience to some of you.

Journey till Jodhpur and Lost Baggage:

We had a nice time with our co passengers who were travelling to Jodhpur ( which is around 400 km before Jaisalmer). We gelled along well. The train reached Jodhpur in the dawn hours after 12 hrs of Journey. The family along with their luggage mistakenly took our luggage with them. We couldnt have known about that had priyanka not asked me to check our belonging. The luggage had all our clothes. Luckily all the expensive items were in a different bag which was with me. Immediately i rushed outside the platform to trace them. But as usual they had gone. It was a horrible time. The train stops for around 1 hr in Jodhpur. I utilized this time to put a complaint with the railway official. I was sure that it was by mistake and we could get the luggage once we trace the family once we are back in Delhi. Still i was hopeful that the family once they realised that they had mistakenly taken our baggage would definitely make an attempt to return it in the railway station as the staoppage time was whopping more than 1 hour. And it happened. While unloading their luggage at their home they realised about the extra "bag" and immediately rushed back to railway station to return the bag. So nice of them. Meanwhile Priyanka had made her mind about all teh extra cloth shopping she would be doing in Jaisalmer.

Jodhpur to Jaisalmer - the desert journey:

After a stoppage of more than one and half hours, Train began its journey again. It was a journey where we will be travelling in the desert for the next 5 hrs. As there were no prominent station where we can find decent food, it is advisable to have full stock of water and food from Jodhpur. The one station in between where you can find food and water falls midway - POKHRAN. I always wanted to visit the site which is supposedly the temple of Military prowess. But you see the number of people who got down to have the delicious "Mirchi Vada" and water at the station